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The influence of the universal two-child policy on China’s future population and ageing

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  • Handong Li

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Tianmin Zhou

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Can Jia

    (Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

The Chinese government began implementing a new family planning policy in 2016 allowing couples to have two children (referred to as the “universal two-child policy”). To predict and evaluate the effects of the policy on the size and structure of Chinese future population, we established a population predicting model that suits China’s characteristics and predicted China’s future population size and structure. Our results showed that: (1) the implementation of the universal two-child policy will have short- and long-term effects on China’s future birth rates. (2) The universal two-child policy will have a limited effect on China’s increase in fertility levels and on the national population size and structure, nor will it change China’s ageing population growth trend and the severity of China’s aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Handong Li & Tianmin Zhou & Can Jia, 2019. "The influence of the universal two-child policy on China’s future population and ageing," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 183-203, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:36:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s12546-019-09228-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-019-09228-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2001. "The end of world population growth," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 543-545, August.
    2. Francesco Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2014. "Stochastic Population Forecasting Based on Combinations of Expert Evaluations Within the Bayesian Paradigm," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1933-1954, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuhn, Britta & Neusius, Thomas, 2022. "Will China's three-child policy defuse the demographic time bomb?," wifin Working Paper Series 14/2022, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences, Wiesbaden Institute of Finance and Insurance (wifin).

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