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Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for France

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  • Vianney Costemalle

Abstract

[eng] Population projections are performed regularly by national statistics institutes. In France, the most recent projections were produced by Insee in 2016 using a deterministic approach based on 27 different scenarios. In this article, we propose a new approach which combines probabilistic population projections and a greater use of the Bayesian paradigm in order to quantify the uncertainty of future population levels without resorting to scenarios. Using the components method, the mortality rate, fertility rate and net migration are projected independently by sex and age. These three components are modelled, taking account of registry data (number of births and deaths) and net migration data series. The results reveal that the population of metropolitan France will continue to grow, reaching a level of between 66.1 million and 77.2 million inhabitants in 2070, with a probability of 95%.

Suggested Citation

  • Vianney Costemalle, 2020. "Bayesian Probabilistic Population Projections for France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 29-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2020_520d_3
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2031
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    File URL: https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/fichier/4997859/03-ES-520-521_Costemalle-EN.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Peter Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer & Jonathan Forster, 2015. "Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1059, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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