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GDP Plus: An Economic Activity Indicator for New Zealand

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In order to gauge economic activity in New Zealand the Reserve Bank uses GDP data, which are subject to measurement error and revisions over time. In this paper we develop an economic activity indicator that combines information from production GDP, expenditure GDP, and employment data. This new measure is smoother and less vulnerable to revisions over time.

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  • Michael Callaghan & Thomas van Florenstein Mulder, 2020. "GDP Plus: An Economic Activity Indicator for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2020/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2020/01
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    File URL: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2020/an2020-01.pdf?revision=4cda3953-a4ed-40b3-aa19-2c2c53dfc3c5
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    File URL: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2020/an2020-01-technical-appendix.pdf?revision=4661c2c7-6793-4334-a01b-147e0a4b53af
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dennis J. Fixler & Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2007. "News, noise, and estimates of the \"true\" unobserved state of the economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    3. Chris McDonald, 2017. "Does past inflation predict the future?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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