Modeling Multivariate Data Revisions
AbstractData revisions in macroeconomic time series are typically studied in isolation ignoring the joint behaviour of revisions across different series. This ignores (i) the possibility that early releases of some series may help forecast revisions in other series and (ii) the problems statitical agencies may face in producing estimates consistent with accounting identities. This paper extends the Jacobs and van Norden (2011) modeling framework to multivariate data revisions. We consider systems of variables, where true values and news and noise can be correlated, and which may be linked by one or more identities. We show how to model such systems with standard linear state space models. We motivate and illustrate the multivariate modeling framework with Swiss current account data using Bayesian econometric methods for estimation and inference.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2013s-44.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2020 rue University, 25e étage, Montréal, Quéc, H3A 2A5
Phone: (514) 985-4000
Fax: (514) 985-4039
Web page: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/
More information through EDIRC
data revisions; state space form; linear constraints; correlated shocks; Bayesian econometrics; current account statistics; Switzerland;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2008.
"The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions,"
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis,
OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2008(2), pages 161-181.
- Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2008. "The Information Content of KOF Indicators on Swiss Current Account Data Revisions," CESifo Working Paper Series 2370, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Sturm Jan-Egbert, 2008. "The information content of KOF indicators on Swiss current account data revisions," KOF Working papers 08-202, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Mardi Dungey & Jan PAM Jacobs & Jing Tian & Simon van Norden, 2012.
"On the correspondence between data revision and trend-cycle decomposition,"
CAMA Working Papers
2012-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- M. Dungey & J. P. A. M. Jacobs & J. Tian & S. van Norden, 2013. "On the correspondence between data revision and trend-cycle decomposition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 316-319, March.
- Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & van Norden, Simon, 2012. "On the correspondence between data revision and trend-cycle decomposition," Working Papers 12975, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 01 Mar 2012.
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
- de Jong, Piet, 1987. "Rational Economic Data Revisions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 539-48, October.
- Dean Croushore, 2008.
"Frontiers of real-time data analysis,"
08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2009.
"A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal from Uncertain Data,"
637, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Chris Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2009. "A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal From Uncertain Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 173-180, March.
- Alastair Cunningham & Jana Eklund & Christopher Jeffery & George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard, 2007. "A state space approach to extracting the signal from uncertain data," Bank of England working papers 336, Bank of England.
- Thomas A. Knetsch & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2009. "Dealing with Benchmark Revisions in Real-Time Data: The Case of German Production and Orders Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 209-235, 04.
- Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
- repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:173-180 is not listed on IDEAS
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001.
"Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
- Tom Doan, . "SEASONALDLM: RATS procedure to create the matrices for the seasonal component of a DLM," Statistical Software Components RTS00251, Boston College Department of Economics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:181-190 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.