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Trend In Cycle Or Cycle In Trend? New Structural Identifications For Unobserved-Components Models Of U.S. Real Gdp

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  • Dungey, Mardi
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.
  • Tian, Jing
  • van Norden, Simon

Abstract

A well-documented property of the Beveridge–Nelson trend–cycle decomposition is the perfect negative correlation between trend and cycle innovations. We show how this may be consistent with a structural model where permanent innovations enter the cycle or transitory innovations enter the trend, and that identification restrictions are necessary to make this structural distinction. A reduced-form unrestricted version is compatible with either option, but cannot distinguish which is relevant. We discuss economic interpretations and implications using U.S. real GDP data.

Suggested Citation

  • Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Tian, Jing & van Norden, Simon, 2015. "Trend In Cycle Or Cycle In Trend? New Structural Identifications For Unobserved-Components Models Of U.S. Real Gdp," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 776-790, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:19:y:2015:i:04:p:776-790_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Mengheng Li, 2019. "The Multivariate Simultaneous Unobserved Compenents Model and Identification via Heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2019_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    2. Andrew E. Evans, 2020. "Average labour productivity dynamics over the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1833-1863, October.
    3. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Irma Hindrayanto & Jan Jacobs & Denise Osborn, 2014. "On trend-cycle-seasonal interactions," DNB Working Papers 417, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Luis Uzeda, 2022. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 25-53, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    7. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Samad Sarferaz & Simon van Norden & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2013. "Modeling Multivariate Data Revisions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-44, CIRANO.

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