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Predicting the Pattern of International Trade in the Neoclassical Model: A Synthesis

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Daniel Bernhofen

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Abstract

I propose a framework that takes a set of conceivable outcomes as the primitive and a prediction is defined by identifying a subset on the set of conceivable outcomes. This notion of predictability serves as an organizing principle for characterizing pattern of trade predictions in single economy and integrated equilibrium formulations of the neoclassical trade model. I identify allocative efficiency as the unifying subset selection criterion for the different formulations of the neoclassical trade model, ranging from Ricardo’s (1817) original comparative advantage formulation to the multi-cone Heckscher-Ohlin specification with multiple countries, goods and factors.

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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, GEP in its series Discussion Papers with number 08/24.

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Handle: RePEc:not:notgep:08/24

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Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
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Related research
Keywords: Predictability; pattern of trade; neoclassical model;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Neary, J Peter & Schweinberger, Albert G, 1986. "Factor Content Functions and the Theory of International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 421-32, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Daniel M. Bernhofen & John C. Brown, 2004. "A Direct Test of the Theory of Comparative Advantage: The Case of Japan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 48-67, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "The Factor Content of Foreign Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 84-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Yong-Seok Choi & Pravin Krishna, 2004. "The Factor Content of Bilateral Trade: An Empirical Test," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 887-914, August.
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  5. Selten, Reinhard, 1991. "Properties of a measure of predictive success," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-167, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Deardorff, Alan V, 1980. "The General Validity of the Law of Comparative Advantage," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 941-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Richard A. Brecher & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 1993. "Some Empirical Support for the Heckscher-Ohlin Model of Production," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 272-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Ethier, Wilfred J., 1984. "Higher dimensional issues in trade theory," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 131-184 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Daniel Bernhofen & Raymond Riezman, 2009. "Introduction: ‘New directions in international trade theory’," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 1-3, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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