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The steadiness of migration plans and expected length of stay: based on a recent survey of Romanian migrants in Italy

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  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)

  • Michael Landesmann

    ()
    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)

Abstract

The study analyses migration intentions and expected length of stay in the host country, taking account of the propensity to change (or retain) migration plans during the course of the migration experience in the host country. We analyse the particular case of Romanian migrants in Italy using a survey conducted in 2011 in the context of the TEMPO/NORFACE project. We used different specifications to analyse the exogeneity vs endogeneity of steady/ changing migration plans on expected length of stay and migration intentions. The survey and the analysis showed that Romanian migrants, both men and women, who arrived in Italy after May 2004, have modified their migration plans and the main determinants have been employment and family reasons. Migrants who have maintained similar migration plans to the ones upon arrival are mostly those with preference for long-term and permanent migration. Counting for gender differences in analysing migration plans matters because diverse patterns emerge for men compared to women. Differently from women, men plan their length of stay based on the employment context, especially on whether the job is adequate to the level of qualification and whether earnings match expectations. For women, on the other hand, family context variables play a significant role. In conclusion, migration intentions could be a good predictor of migration behaviour if we account for the endogeneity of steadiness/switching of such plans.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London in its series Norface Discussion Paper Series with number 2013007.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nor:wpaper:2013007

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Keywords: migration; temporary/permanent; Romanian migrants; applied econometrics; bivariate ordered probit; migrants in Italy;

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  1. Locher, Lilo, 2001. "Testing for the Option Value of Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 405, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Hendrik P. van Dalen & K�ne Henkens, 2004. "The Rationality behind Immigration Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-002/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
  4. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
  5. Burda, Michael C. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Müller, Marlene & Werwatz, Axel, 1997. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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  7. Christian Dustmann & Josep Mestres, 2009. "Remittances and Temporary Migration," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0909, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  8. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
  9. Dalen, H.P. van & Henkens, K., 2008. "Emigration Intentions: Mere Words or True Plans? Explaining International Migration Intentions and Behavior," Discussion Paper 2008-60, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  10. repec:wop:humbsf:1998-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Hendrik P. van Dalen & K�ne Henkens, 2004. "The Rationality behind Immigration Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-002/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Berninghaus, Siegfried & Seifert-Vogt, Hans Gunther, 1993. "The role of the target saving motive in guest worker migration A theoretical study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 181-205.
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