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Is there scientific progress in macroeconomics? The case of the NAIRU

Author

Listed:
  • Dany Lang

    (Centre d’Economie de Paris Nord (CEPN), Université de Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité)

  • Mark Setterfield

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

Abstract

We address the question posed in the title of this paper by investigating recent developments in the literature that estimates the NAIRU. A necessary condition for the existence of a NAIRU is dynamic homogeneity: the Phillips curve should be homogenous of degree one in lagged and/or expected inflation. But contemporary approaches to estimating the NAIRU typically assume rather than test for dynamic homogeneity, thus assuming (rather than testing for) the existence of a NAIRU. We argue that these developments remove the NAIRU from the domain of testable hypotheses and transform the concept into an article of faith. This does not constitute scientific progress.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Is there scientific progress in macroeconomics? The case of the NAIRU," Working Papers 1509, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:1509
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    2. Dean Baker & Andrew Glyn & David Howell & John Schmitt, 2002. "Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment: A Critical Assessment of the Cross-Country Evidence," SCEPA working paper series. 2002-17, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
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    Cited by:

    1. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    2. Mark Setterfield & Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions," Working Papers 2201, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," FMM Working Paper 74-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; dynamic homogeneity; hysteresis; testable hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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