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Abstract

The positive correlation between import tariffs and economic growth across countries in the late nineteenth century suggests that tariffs may have played a causal role in promoting growth. This paper seeks to determine if high tariffs stimulated growth by shifting resources out of agriculture and into manufacturing. The most rapidly growing countries were indeed those that reduced the share of employment in agriculture. Tariffs in agricultural exporting (importing) countries may have promoted (retarded) this shift, although two high tariff, high growth, agricultural-exporting outliers (Argentina and Canada) experienced export-oriented growth and did not pursue import substitution policies. This raises the question of whether economic growth led to changes in the structure of employment rather than changes in employment leading to economic growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8751.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8751

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• F1 - International Economics - - Trade
• N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2002-02-10 (All new papers)

References

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1. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "Sources of Convergence in the Late Nineteenth Century," NBER Working Papers 5806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Taylor, Alan M., 1999. "Sources of convergence in the late nineteenth century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1621-1645, October.
2. Temin, Peter, 2002. "The Golden Age of European growth reconsidered," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 3-22, April.
3. O'Rourke, Kevin H, 2000. "Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(463), pages 456-83, April.
   
   • O'Rourke, K, 1997. "Tariffs and Growth in the Late 19th Century," Papers 97/18, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
4. Estevadeordal, Antoni, 1997. "Measuring protection in the early twentieth century," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 89-125, April.
5. Morris, Cynthia Taft & Adelman, Irma, 1989. "Nineteenth-century development experience and lessons for today," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(9), pages 1417-1432, September.
6. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
7. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, November.
8. Lant Pritchett, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
   
   • Pritchett, Lant, 1995. "Divergence, big time," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1522, The World Bank.
9. Krueger, Anne O, 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 1-22, March.
10. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
11. Anne O. Krueger, 1997. "Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn," NBER Working Papers 5896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
12. Peter Timmer, C., 1988. "The agricultural transformation," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 275-331 Elsevier.
13. Douglas A. Irwin, 2002. "Interpreting the Tariff-Growth Correlation of the Late Nineteenth Century," NBER Working Papers 8739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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Citations

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Cited by:

1. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
2. Falkinger, Josef & Grossmann, Volker, 2004. "Institutions and Development: The Interaction between Trade Regime and Political System," IZA Discussion Papers 1242, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
   
   • Josef Falkinger & Volker Grossmann, 2005. "Institutions and Development: The Interaction Between Trade Regime and Political System," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 231-272, 09.
   • Josef Falkinger & Volker Grossmann, 2004. "Institutions and Development: The Interaction between Trade Regime and Political System," CESifo Working Paper Series 1279, CESifo Group Munich.
3. Antonio Tena Junguito, 2008. "Bairoch revisited. Tariff structure and growth in the late 19th century," Working Papers in Economic History wp08-04, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.
   
   • Tena-Junguito, Antonio, 2009. "Bairoch revisited: tariff structure and growth in the late 19th century," Economic History Working Papers 27869, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
   • Tena Junguito, Antonio, . "Bairoch revisited : tariff structure and growth in the late 19th century," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/2366, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
4. Antonio Tena Junguito, 2006. "Tariff History Lessons from the European Periphery. Protection Intensity and the Infant Industry Argument in Spain and Italy 1870-1930," Working Papers in Economic History wp06-08, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.
   
   • Antonio Tena Junguito, 2010. "Tariff History Lessons from the European Periphery. Protection Intensity and the Infant Industry Argument in Spain and Italy 1870-1930," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 35(1), pages 340-363.
   • Tena Junguito, Antonio, . "Tariff history lessons from the European periphery. protection intensity and the infant industry argument in Spain and Italy 1870-1930.," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/440, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
5. Mustafa Akal, 2006. "Causalities Among Growth Related Policy Variables In Turkey, 1950-2004," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
6. Grilli, Enzo, 2005. "Political economy and economic development in Latin America in the second half of the 20th century," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-31, February.
7. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Appropriate Economic Policies at Different Stages of Development," MPRA Paper 20066, University Library of Munich, Germany.
8. Sibylle H. Lehmann & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2008. "The Structure of Protection and Growth in the Late 19th Century," NBER Working Papers 14493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Lehmann, Sibylle H. & O'Rourke, Kevin H, 2008. "The Structure of Protection and Growth in the Late 19th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 7053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
   • Sibylle H. Lehmann and Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2008. "The structure of protection and growth in the late 19th century," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp269, IIIS.
9. Robert E. Baldwin, 2003. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Working Papers 9578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
10. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2002. "Why Did the Tariff-Growth Correlation Reverse After 1950?," NBER Working Papers 9181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Antonio Tena Junguito, 2001. "Measuring Protection Over Time. Revenue And Protective Products In The 19th Century European Tariff Growth Debate," Working Papers in Economic History wh017204, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.
    
    • Tena Junguito, Antonio, . "Measuring protection over time : revenue and protective products in the 19th century European tariff growth debate," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/399, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
12. Isabel Sanz Villarroya, 2003. "Derechos de Propiedad y Crecimiento Económico en Argentina 1875-1990," Working Papers in Economic History dh030403, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.

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