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The Mysterious Growing Value of S&P 500 Membership

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  • Randall Morck
  • Fan Yang

Abstract

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that passive indexing should generate as high a return as active fund management. Indexing has been a very successful strategy. We document a large value premium in the average q ratios of firms in the S&P 500 index relative to the q ratios of other similar firms that appears in the mid 1980s and grows in step with the growth of indexing. Passive investment strategies that require the purchase of the particular 500 stocks in this index increase demand for those stocks and so push up their prices. In short, indexing induces downward sloping demand curves for stocks in the index. For reasons that are not fully clear, arbitrageurs apparently do not correct this overvaluation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8654.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8654

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  1. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
  2. Massimo Massa & William N. Goetzmann, 1998. "Index Funds and Stock Market Growth," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm99, Yale School of Management.
  3. Aditya Kaul & Vikas Mehrotra & Randall Morck, 1999. "Demand Curves for Stocks Do Slope Down: New Evidence From An Index Weights Adjustment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1884, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  6. Lynch, Anthony W & Mendenhall, Richard R, 1997. "New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 351-83, July.
  7. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
  8. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April.
  9. Dhillon, Upinder & Johnson, Herb, 1991. "Changes in the Standard and Poor's 500 List," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 75-85, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Mihir A. Desai & Dhammika Dharmapala, 2005. "Corporate Tax Avoidance and Firm Value," NBER Working Papers 11241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Paul A. Gompers & Joy Ishii & Andrew Metrick, 2004. "Incentives vs. Control: An Analysis of U.S. Dual-Class Companies," NBER Working Papers 10240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. C├ęcile Carpentier & Douglas Cumming & Jean-Marc Suret, 2010. "The Valuation Effect of Listing Requirements: An Analysis of Venture Capital-Backed IPOs," CIRANO Working Papers 2010s-01, CIRANO.
  4. Chakrabarti, Rajesh & Huang, Wei & Jayaraman, Narayanan & Lee, Jinsoo, 2005. "Price and volume effects of changes in MSCI indices - nature and causes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1237-1264, May.
  5. Jeffrey Wurgler, 2010. "On the Economic Consequences of Index-Linked Investing," NBER Working Papers 16376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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