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How Reasonable Are Assumptions Used in Theoretical Models?: Computational Evidence on the Likelihood of Trade Pattern Changes

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Author Info
Lisandro Abrego
Raymond Riezman
John Whalley

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Abstract

This paper seeks to contribute to discussion of the reasonableness of sometimes seemingly innocent assumptions used in theoretical trade models that the direction of trade is both predetermined for each good for each country and fixed. Here, we provide computational evidence as to the reasonableness of this assumption. We consider a simple three-country, three-good, pure-exchange model with CES preferences. We compute free trade competitive equilibria, three-country non-cooperative Nash equilibria, and customs union equilibria for randomized parameterizations, and find that trade patterns change in around 35% of the cases between free trade and customs union equilibria. In three-country Nash and customs unions comparisons trade patterns change roughly 40% of the time. We evaluate alternative cases, including with different numbers of randomizations in the parameter space. Results remain robust, reinforcing our conclusion that the assumption of unchanged trade pattern changes, common in theoretical analysis, does not have firm numerical support in the cases we consider.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8169.

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Date of creation: Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8169

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. John Kennan & Raymond Riezman, 1990. "Optimal Tariff Equilibria with Customs Unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 70-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kehoe, Timothy J, 1980. "An Index Theorem for General Equilibrium Models with Production," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1211-32, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kennan, John & Riezman, Raymond, 1988. "Do Big Countries Win Tariff Wars?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(1), pages 81-85, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Riezman, Raymond, 1985. "Customs unions and the core," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 355-365, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1999. "Customs Unions and Comparative Advantage," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 239-66, April.
  6. Berglas, Eitan, 1979. "Preferential Trading Theory: The n Commodity Case," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 315-31, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Edgar Cudmore & John Whalley, 2003. "Border Delays and Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 9485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. John Whalley, 2005. "Pitfalls in the Use of Ad valorem Equivalent Representations of the Trade Impacts of Domestic Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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