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How Often Are Propositions On The Effects Of Regional Trade Agreements Theoretical Curiosa And When Should They Guide Policy?

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Abstract

This paper uses computational techniques to assess whether or not various propositions that have been advanced as plausible in the literature on regional trade agreements may actually hold. The idea is to make probabilistic statements as to whether propositions of interest might hold, rather than to restrict assumptions so they unambiguously hold. Our aim is to blend theory and numerical simulation and go beyond the ambiguous analytically derived propositions that dominate the theoretical literature so as to assess the likelihood of propositions holding for particular model specifications.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics in its series UWO Department of Economics Working Papers with number 20024.

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Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:uwo:uwowop:20024

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Postal: Department of Economics, Reference Centre, Social Science Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5C2
Phone: 519-661-2111 Ext.85244
Web page: http://economics.uwo.ca/research/research_papers/department_working_papers.html

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Keywords: Regional Trade Agreement; Customs Union; Tariff equilibrium;

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References

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  1. Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Can Bilateral Trade Agreements Help Induce Free Trade?," CSGR Working papers series 44/99, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe, 1979. "An Index Theorem for General Equilibrium Models with Production," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 516, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. John Kennan & Raymond Riezman, 1990. "Optimal Tariff Equilibria with Customs Unions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 70-83, February.
  4. Miller, Marcus H & Spencer, John E, 1977. "The Static Economic Effects of the UK Joining the EEC: A General Equilibrium Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 71-93, February.
  5. John Whalley, 1984. "Trade Liberalization among Major World Trading Areas," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262231204, December.
  6. Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 1974. "On the computation of competitive equilibrium on International markets with tariffs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 341-354, November.
  7. Lloyd, P. J., 1982. "3 x 3 theory of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 41-63, February.
  8. Kemp, Murray C. & Wan, Henry Jr., 1976. "An elementary proposition concerning the formation of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-97, February.
  9. Hamilton, Robert W & Whalley, John, 1985. "Geographically Discriminatory Trade Arrangements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 446-55, August.
  10. Riezman, Raymond, 1985. "Customs unions and the core," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 355-365, November.
  11. Kowalczyk, Carsten, 1989. "Trade Negotiations and World Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 552-59, June.
  12. Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Regionalism and the world trading system," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 295-301.
  13. Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1999. "Customs Unions and Comparative Advantage," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 239-66, April.
  14. Riezman, Raymond, 1979. "A 3 x 3 model of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 341-354, August.
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Cited by:
  1. T. Huw Edwards, 2006. "Search and the Path-Dependency of Trade," Discussion Paper Series 2006_12, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2006.

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