The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Breakup: Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?
AbstractThis paper examines the macroeconomic aftermath of the 1992 breakdown of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). The economic performance of six leaver' nations is compared with five stayer' nations that maintained a roughly fixed parity with the Deutsche Mark. Recent writing about post-1992, which I call the conventional wisdom,' reports that a surprising miracle occurred the leaver nations are alleged to have enjoyed a burst of real growth and a decline in unemployment, all without any evidence of extra inflation. The results in this paper turn the conventional wisdom on its head. While the leaver nations experienced an acceleration of nominal GDP growth relative to the stayers, fully 80 percent of this spilled over into extra inflation, leaving only 20 percent remaining for extra real GDP growth. Virtually 100 percent of the nominal exchange rate depreciation passed through into higher import prices, and extra inflation would have been even more pronounced if it were not for quiescent wage rates, which the paper attributes to high unemployment. The absence of any significant stimulus to real output growth is attributed to fiscal tightening under pressure from the Maastricht criteria, which offset nearly all of the stimulus coming from the improved current account of the leaver nations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6964.
Date of creation: Feb 1999
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Publication status: published as Robert J. Gordon. "The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Breakup: Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?," in Paul Krugman, editor, "Currency Crises" University of Chicago Press (2000)
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Other versions of this item:
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Breakup: Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 241-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon, Robert J, 1999. "The Aftermath of the 1992 ERM Break-up: Was There a Macroeconomic Free Lunch?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2073, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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