New Activities, the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty and Investment Policies
AbstractThis paper studies the effect of policy uncertainty on the formation of new activities in Romer's (1994) type of an economy, where productivity of labor increases with the number of capital goods. Adding a new capital good requires a capital specific set-up cost, invested prior to using the capital good. Agents are disappointment averse, putting greater utility weight on downside risk [as modeled by Gul (1991)]. Policy uncertainty is induced by the Disappointment aversion implies that investment, labor and capitalists' income drop at a rate proportional to the standard deviation of the tax rate. Hence, policy uncertainty induces first-order adverse effects, whereas policy uncertainty leads to second-order effects when consumers maximize the conventional expected utility. The adverse effects of policy uncertainty can be partially overcome by a proper investment policy. The paper interprets the tax concessions granted to multinationals as a commitment device that helps overcoming the adverse implications of policy uncertainty.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5825.
Date of creation: Nov 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as International Journal of Finance & Economics, Vol. 3, no. 2 (April 1998): 97-110
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Aizenman, Joshua, 1998. "New Activities, the Welfare Cost of Uncertainty and Investment Policies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 97-110, April.
- F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
- Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975.
"Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
- Pindyck, Robert S. & Solimano, Andrés., 1993.
"Economic instability and aggregate investment,"
3552-93., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Andres Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 4380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S. & Solimano, Andres, 1993. "Economic instability and aggregate investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1148, The World Bank.
- Harless, David W & Camerer, Colin F, 1994. "The Predictive Utility of Generalized Expected Utility Theories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1251-89, November.
- Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995.
"Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
- Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1991.
"Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991.
"Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May.
- Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996.
" Political Instability and Economic Growth,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
- Uzi Segal & Avia Spivak, 1988.
"First Order Versus Second Order Risk Aversion,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
540, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1974. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Turkey," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue74-1, May.
- Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
- Blomstrom, Magnus & Persson, Hakan, 1983. "Foreign investment and spillover efficiency in an underdeveloped economy: Evidence from the Mexican manufacturing industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 493-501, June.
- Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996.
"Political Instability and Economic Growth,"
4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Paolo Panteghini, 2000.
"On Corporate Tax Asymmetries and Neutrality,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
276, CESifo Group Munich.
- Heikkinen, Tiina & Pietola, Kyosti, 2006.
"Investment and the Dynamic Cost of Income Uncertainty: the Case of Diminishing Expectations in Agriculture,"
11868, MTT Agrifood Research Finland.
- Heikkinen, T. & Pietola, K., 2009. "Investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty: The case of diminishing expectations in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 634-646, January.
- Klimenko, Mikhail M., 2004. "Industrial targeting, experimentation and long-run specialization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 75-105, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.