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GDP Fluctuations and Private Investment: A Macro Panel Analysis of Selected South Asian Countries

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  • Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam
  • Siddiqi, Muhammad Wasif

Abstract

The current study examines the relationship between GDP fluctuations and private investment by using macro panel approach in a panel of five selected South Asian countries (SSAC) including Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka for the period of 1980-2010. The study applies modern non-stationary panel techniques such as cross section dependence test, unit root test under cross sectional dependence, panel cointegration and Group Mean Fully Modified OLS (GM-FMOLS) estimation. The study finds a long-run co-integrating relationship between GDP fluctuations and private investment in the SSAC. GM-FMOLS estimates show that this link is negative. Thus, the results indicate that GDP fluctuations have a significant negative impact on private investment in SSAC as GDP volatility gives a negative signal to private investors. The study also suggests that GDP volatility may be harmful for private investment in developing countries and negative effect on private investment will also be transferred to growth as the investment is a key determinant of growth. So, the governments of developing countries should equally focus on managing the volatility of GDP to increase private investment along with other measures for creating an investment-friendly environment. Additionally, an increase in private investment will further help in maintenance of stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam & Siddiqi, Muhammad Wasif, 2013. "GDP Fluctuations and Private Investment: A Macro Panel Analysis of Selected South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 60231, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60231
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Khan, 2021. "Effect of Natural Resources on Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(1), pages 29-47, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP volatility; GDP fluctuations; private investment; uncertainty; south Asia; group mean FMOLS; panel co-integration; macro panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

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