IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/scotjp/v48y2001i4p361-382.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Temple
  • Giovanni Urga
  • Ciaran Driver

Abstract

While the theory examining the relationship between uncertainty and investment has suggested new research avenues, it has not had strong predictive power. Nevertheless, at the policy level the benefits for investment of a more stable economic climate are being emphasised. These considerations point to the need for empirical work. Accordingly, this paper draws on industry level panel data, obtained by marrying the UK Census of Production with the CBI Industrial Trends Survey, and applies dynamic panel data methods to distinguish between macro and micro sources of uncertainty and to consider the role of financial factors. It is found that both sources of uncertainty exert a considerable negative impact on investment, while financial factors may be important in some industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga & Ciaran Driver, 2001. "The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 361-382, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:48:y:2001:i:4:p:361-382
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9485.00204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00204
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-9485.00204?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lay Lian Chuah & Wai Ching Poon & Balachandher Krishnan Guru, 2018. "Uncertainty and Private Investment Decision in Malaysia," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 1-71, September.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    3. Aytekin GÜVEN & Arzu AKKOYUNLU-WIGLEY, 2018. "The Effects of Market Structure on Uncertainty-Investment Relationship: Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(37).
    4. Mitchell, James & Mouratidis, Kostas & Weale, Martin, 2007. "Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: Evidence from qualitative survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 245-252, February.
    5. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2009. "The irreversibility premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 390-408, April.
    6. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    7. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-060/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2008. "Firms' investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2337-2351.
    10. Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam & Siddiqi, Muhammad Wasif, 2013. "GDP Fluctuations and Private Investment: A Macro Panel Analysis of Selected South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 60231, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2014.
    11. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    12. Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Another look at the linear q model: an empirical analysis of aggregate business capital spending with maintenance expenditures," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1282-1315, November.
    13. Driver, Ciaran & Guedes, Maria João Coelho, 2012. "Research and development, cash flow, agency and governance: UK large companies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1565-1577.
    14. Mellati, Ali, 2008. "Uncertainty and investment in private sector: An analytical argument and a review of the economy of Iran," MPRA Paper 26655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:48:y:2001:i:4:p:361-382. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sesssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.