Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates
AbstractMany authors argue that asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public is important to the conduct and the effects of monetary policy. This paper tests for the existence of such asymmetric information by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We demonstrate that the Federal Reserve has considerable information about inflation beyond what is known to commercial forecasters. We also provide evidence that monetary policy actions provide signals of the Federal Reserve's private information and that commercial forecasters modify their forecasts in response to those signals. These findings may explain why long-term interest rates typically rise in response to shifts to tighter monetary policy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5692.
Date of creation: Jul 1996
Date of revision:
Note: EFG ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Canzoneri, Matthew B, 1985.
"Monetary Policy Games and the Role of Private Information,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1056-70, December.
- Matthew B. Canzoneri, 1983. "Monetary policy games and the role of private information," International Finance Discussion Papers 249, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983.
"Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1984. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barsky, Robert B., 1987.
"The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
- Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990.
"Herd Behavior and Investment,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
- Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40, February.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995.
"Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September.
- Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
- Bharat Barot, 2004.
"How accurate are the Swedish forecasters on GDB-Growth, CPI-inflation and unemployment? (1993 - 2001),"
Brussels Economic Review,
ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(2), pages 249-278.
- Bharat Barot, 2005. "How Accurate Are The Swedish Forecasters On Gdp-Growth,Cpi- Inflation And Unemployment? (1993-2001)," Macroeconomics 0510017, EconWPA.
- Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 1999. "Whose monetary policy is it anyway?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 217-235, February.
- Geraats, P.M., 2001.
"Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts,"
41, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Geraats, Petra M., 2001. "Why adopt transparency? The publication of central bank forecasts," Working Paper Series 0041, European Central Bank.
- Geraats, Petra M, 2000. "Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 2582, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Geraats, Petra M., 2000. "Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0hw7h7cp, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2001. "Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Macroeconomics 0012011, EconWPA.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Barth, Marvin J III & Ramey, Valerie A, 2000.
"The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmissions,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt7rm5q9sk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999.
"Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study,"
357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese & Ignazio Visco, 1999. "Are model-based inflation forecasts used in monetary policymaking? A case study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 357, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1998. "Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it," Working Papers 98-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1997. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: What Central Bankers Could Learn from Academics--And Vice Versa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 3-19, Spring.
- Helge Berger & Marcel Thum, 2000. "News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the Government," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(4), pages 465-493, November.
- Kevin L. Kliesen & Frank A. Schmid, 2004. "Do productivity growth, budget deficits, and monetary policy actions affect real interest rates? evidence from macroeconomic announcement data," Working Papers 2004-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Thorbecke, Willem, 2000. "Monetary Policy, Time-Varying Risk, and the Bond Market Debacle of 1994," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 159-174, January.
- Johnson, Robert R. & Buetow, Gerald W. & Jensen, Gerald R. & Reilly, Frank K., 2003. "Monetary policy and fixed income returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 133-146.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 1997. "Is banking supervision central to central banking?," Working Papers 97-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Andrew G Haldane, 1997. "Designing Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.