Trade Reforms, Credibility, and Development
AbstractThis paper analyzes the role of investment policies in regimes undergoing trade liberalization with policy makers of uncertain credibility. We consider an economy producing exportable and importable goods. The economy is liberalized, and tariffs are eliminated. The public views the reform credibility as questionable, and expects the possibility of future policy reversal. The policy maker sets policies and public investment as to maximize the expected utility of a risk averse representative agent. We identify the need to tax private investment in the importable sector, and to subsidize private investment in the outward-oriented sector. We show that the signaling effect of public investment nay generate a positive externality for public investment in the outward sector, and a negative externality for public investment in the inward-oriented activity. We demonstrate that the elimination of sectorial private investment policies call for a rise in the public/private capital ratio in the outward-oriented activities, and a drop in that ratio in the inward-oriented activities. In the presence of an external credit ceiling, a higher degree of risk aversion increases the magnitude (without changing the nature) of the policies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3600.
Date of creation: Jan 1991
Date of revision:
Note: ITI IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dani Rodrik, 1988.
"Promises, Promises: Credible Policy Reform via Signaling,"
NBER Working Papers
2600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, Dani, 1989. "Promises, Promises: Credible Policy Reform via Signalling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 756-72, September.
- Dixit, Avinash, 1991. "Irreversible Investment with Price Ceilings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 541-57, June.
- Buffie, Edward F., 1995. "Trade liberalization, credibility and self-fulfilling failures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 51-73, February.
- Richard Mash, 1999. "The Investment Response to Imperfectly Credible Trade Liberalisation with Endogenous Probability of Reversal," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1998-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Marjit, Sugata & Mukherjee, Arijit & Kabiraj, Tarun, 2004. "Future technology, incomplete information and international joint venture," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 219-234, September.
- Kabiraj, Tarun & Yang, Chun-Lei, 2001. "Licensing vs. Innovation incentives under uncertain government policies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 247-261, July.
- Ibarra, Luis Alberto, 1995. "Credibility of trade policy reform and investment: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 39-60, June.
- Azam, Muhammad & Khan, Hashim & Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Ahmad, H. Mushtaq & Chani, Muhammad Irfan, 2011. "Institutions, macroeconomic policy and foreign direct investment: South Asian countries case," MPRA Paper 32480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- William C. Gruben, 1992. "On the future erosion of the North American Free Trade Agreement," Research Paper 9208, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Muhammad Jamil & Erich W. Streissler & Robert M. Kunst, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and its Impact on Industrial Production, Before and After the Introduction of Common Currency in Europe," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 85-109.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.