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The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts

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Listed:
  • Gadi Barlevy
  • R. Jason Faberman
  • Bart Hobijn
  • Ayşegül Şahin

Abstract

We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. We argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts," NBER Working Papers 31783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31783
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    1. Henry S. Farber & Robert G. Valletta, 2015. "Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells?: Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(4), pages 873-909.
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    4. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
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    1. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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