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Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19

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  • Seth M. Freedman
  • Daniel W. Sacks
  • Kosali I. Simon
  • Coady Wing

Abstract

We estimate direct and indirect vaccine effectiveness, and assess how far the infection-reducing externality extends from the vaccinated, a key input to policy decisions. Our empirical strategy uses nearly universal microdata from a single state and relies on the six-month delay between 12- and 11 year-old COVID vaccine eligibility. Vaccination reduces cases by 80 percent, the direct effect. This protection spills over to close contacts, producing a household-level indirect effect about half as large as the direct effect. However, indirect effects do not extend to schoolmates. Our results highlight vaccine reach as an important aspect of policy towards infectious disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth M. Freedman & Daniel W. Sacks & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2022. "Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 30550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30550
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    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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