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Total shutdowns, targeted restrictions, or individual responsibility: How to promote social distancing in the COVID-19 Era?

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  • Cronin, Christopher J.
  • Evans, William N.

Abstract

We examine the impact of early state and local COVID-19 policies to encourage social distancing. Outcomes are daily foot traffic at establishments spanning ten key industries, across which transmission risk varies substantially. Policies include state of emergency declarations, blunt general restrictions such as stay-at-home (SAH) orders, and targeted rules such as restrictions on bars, restaurants, entertainment venues, and schools. Exploiting variation in the timing of policies in difference-in-difference models, we show that much of the decline in foot traffic early in the pandemic was due to private precautionary behavior. SAH orders explain almost none of the foot traffic decline in industries with high risk of virus transmission, but they do explain a substantial share of the decline in moderate- to low-risk industries such as outdoor sports and visits to parks. Targeted restrictions tend to impact intended industries, as well as complementary ones. We show that the impact of targeted restrictions is largest in counties with no SAH restrictions, suggesting that better targeting of public restrictions can have important efficiency gains.

Suggested Citation

  • Cronin, Christopher J. & Evans, William N., 2021. "Total shutdowns, targeted restrictions, or individual responsibility: How to promote social distancing in the COVID-19 Era?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:79:y:2021:i:c:s0167629621000825
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2021.102497
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    Cited by:

    1. Seth M. Freedman & Daniel W. Sacks & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2022. "Direct and indirect effects of vaccines: Evidence from COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 30550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2023. "Sudden lockdown repeals, social mobility, and COVID‐19: Evidence from a judicial natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 272-304, June.
    3. Chen, Kong-Pin & Yang, Jui-Chung & Yang, Tzu-Ting, 2022. "JUE insight: Demand for transportation and spatial pattern of economic activity during the pandemic," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. MASUHARA Hiroaki & HOSOYA Kei, 2022. "What Impacts Do Human Mobility and Vaccination Have on Trends in COVID-19 Infections? Evidence from four developed countries," Discussion papers 22087, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Wang, Zongrun & Zhou, Ling & Mi, Yunlong & Shi, Yong, 2022. "Measuring dynamic pandemic-related policy effects: A time-varying parameter multi-level dynamic factor model approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Jennifer Hanratty & Ciara Keenan & Sean R. O'Connor & Rachel Leonard & Yuan Chi & Janet Ferguson & Ariana Axiaq & Sarah Miller & Declan Bradley & Martin Dempster, 2023. "Psychological and psychosocial determinants of COVID Health Related Behaviours (COHeRe): An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), September.
    7. Sara Boni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS94, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

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