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Can Pigou at the Polls Stop Us Melting the Poles?

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  • Soren T. Anderson
  • Ioana Marinescu
  • Boris Shor

Abstract

Surveys show majority U.S. support for a carbon tax. Yet none has been adopted. Why? We study two failed carbon tax initiatives in Washington State in 2016 and 2018. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we show that Washington's real-world campaigns reduced support by 20 percentage points. Resistance to higher energy prices explains opposition to these policies in the average precinct, while ideology explains 90% of the variation in votes across precincts. Conservatives preferred the 2016 revenue-neutral policy, while liberals preferred the 2018 green-spending policy. Yet we forecast both initiatives would fail in other states, demonstrating that surveys are overly optimistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Soren T. Anderson & Ioana Marinescu & Boris Shor, 2019. "Can Pigou at the Polls Stop Us Melting the Poles?," NBER Working Papers 26146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26146
    Note: EEE PE POL
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefano Carattini & Andrea Baranzini & Philippe Thalmann & Frédéric Varone & Frank Vöhringer, 2017. "Green Taxes in a Post-Paris World: Are Millions of Nays Inevitable?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 97-128, September.
    2. Matthew J. Holian & Matthew E. Kahn, 2014. "Household Demand for Low Carbon Public Policies: Evidence from California," NBER Working Papers 19965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stefano Carattini & Maria Carvalho & Sam Fankhauser, 2018. "Overcoming public resistance to carbon taxes," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(5), September.
    4. Jesse Burkhardt & Nathan W. Chan, 2017. "The Dollars and Sense of Ballot Propositions: Estimating Willingness to Pay for Public Goods Using Aggregate Voting Data," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 479-503.
    5. Matthew J. Holian & Matthew E. Kahn, 2015. "Household Demand for Low Carbon Policies: Evidence from California," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(2), pages 205-234.
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    Cited by:

    1. Knollenborg, Leonard & Sommer, Stephan, 2021. "Diverging beliefs on climate change and climate policy in Germany: The role of political orientations," Ruhr Economic Papers 909, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Fanghella, Valeria & Faure, Corinne & Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte & Schleich, Joachim, 2023. "What's in it for me? Self-interest and preferences for distribution of costs and benefits of energy efficiency policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    3. Yoon, Yeochang, 2023. "Improving social acceptance for carbon taxation in South Korea," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(2), pages 1-20.
    4. Thomas Douenne & Adrien Fabre, 2020. "Yellow Vests, Carbon Tax Aversion, and Biased Beliefs," PSE Working Papers halshs-02482639, HAL.
    5. Doremus, Jacqueline M. & Jacqz, Irene & Johnston, Sarah, 2022. "Sweating the energy bill: Extreme weather, poor households, and the energy spending gap," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Douenne, Thomas & Fabre, Adrien, 2020. "French attitudes on climate change, carbon taxation and other climate policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Kayla M. Young & Kayla Gurganus & Leigh Raymond, 2022. "Framing market‐based versus regulatory climate policies: A comparative analysis," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 39(6), pages 798-819, November.
    8. Mattauch, Linus & Zhao, Jiaxin, 2021. "When standards have better distributional consequences than carbon taxes," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-25, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    9. Sommer, Stephan & Konc, Théo & Drews, Stefan, 2023. "How Resilient is Public Support for Carbon Pricing? Longitudinal Evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 1017, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Carattini, Stefano & Sen, Suphi, 2019. "Carbon taxes and stranded assets: Evidence from Washington state," Economics Working Paper Series 1909, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    11. Sara Maestre-Andrés & Stefan Drews & Ivan Savin & Jeroen Bergh, 2021. "Carbon tax acceptability with information provision and mixed revenue uses," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Lang, Corey & Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna, 2022. "Aggregate data yield biased estimates of voter preferences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. Leonard Knollenborg & Stephan Sommer, 2023. "Diverging Beliefs on Climate Change and Climate Policy: The Role of Political Orientation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1031-1049, April.
    14. Matthew E. Kahn & Somik Lall, 2022. "Will the Developing World’s Growing Middle Class Support Low Carbon Policies?," NBER Working Papers 30238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Fang, Ximeng & Innocenti, Stefania, 2023. "Increasing the acceptability of carbon taxation: The role of social norms and economic reasoning," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-25, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    16. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Spuler, Fiona & Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "The economics of climate change with endogenous preferences," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Carolyn Fischer & Grant D. Jacobsen, 2021. "Political Viability, Market‐Based Standards, And Climate Policy," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 1002-1005, June.
    18. Sverker C. Jagers & Erick Lachapelle & Johan Martinsson & Simon Matti, 2021. "Bridging the ideological gap? How fairness perceptions mediate the effect of revenue recycling on public support for carbon taxes in the United States, Canada and Germany," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 38(5), pages 529-554, September.
    19. Zhao, Jiaxin & Mattauch, Linus, 2022. "When standards have better distributional consequences than carbon taxes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Silvi, Mariateresa & Padilla Rosa, Emilio, 2023. "A tragedy of the horizons? An intertemporal perspective on public support for carbon taxes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    21. Stephan Sommer & Théo Konc & Stefan Drews, 2023. "How resilient is public support for carbon pricing? Longitudinal evidence from Germany," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0021, Berlin School of Economics.
    22. Carroll, Deborah A. & Stevens, Kelly A., 2021. "The short-term impact on emissions and federal tax revenue of a carbon tax in the U.S. electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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