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Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan

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Listed:
  • Brian K. Chen
  • Hawre Jalal
  • Hideki Hashimoto
  • Sze-Chuan Suen
  • Karen Eggleston
  • Michael Hurley
  • Lena Schoemaker
  • Jay Bhattacharya

Abstract

Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan’s elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 or more ADLs; and approximately one in 5 will suffer limitations in cognitive or intellectual functioning. Since the majority of the increase in disability arises from the aging of the Japanese population, prevention efforts that reduce age-specific disability (or future compression of morbidity among middle-aged Japanese) may have only a limited impact on reducing the overall prevalence of disability among Japanese elderly.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian K. Chen & Hawre Jalal & Hideki Hashimoto & Sze-Chuan Suen & Karen Eggleston & Michael Hurley & Lena Schoemaker & Jay Bhattacharya, 2016. "Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan," NBER Working Papers 21870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21870
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    4. FUKAI Taiyo & ICHIMURA Hidehiko & KANAZAWA Kyogo, 2018. "Quantifying Health Shocks over the Life Cycle," Discussion papers 18014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Ataru Igarashi & Midori Tanaka & Keiichi Abe & Lance Richard & Vivian Peirce & Kazumichi Yamada, 2019. "Cost-minimisation model of magnetic resonance-guided focussed ultrasound therapy compared to unilateral deep brain stimulation for essential tremor treatment in Japan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Elisabeth Bublitz & Michael Wyrwich, 2018. "Technological change and labor market integration," Jena Economics Research Papers 2018-008, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    7. Chen, Cynthia & Lim, Jue Tao & Chia, Ngee Choon & Wang, Lijia & Tysinger, Bryan & Zissimopoulos, Julie & Chong, Ming Zhe & Wang, Zhe & Koh, Gerald Choon Huat & Yuan, Jian-Min & Tan, Kelvin Bryan & Chi, 2019. "The long-term impact of functional disability on hospitalization spending in Singapore," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    8. Karmann, Alexander & Sugawara, Shinya, 2022. "Comparing the German and Japanese nursing home sectors: Implications of demographic and policy differences," CEPIE Working Papers 02/22, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    9. Daniel Bauer & Darius Lakdawalla & Julian Reif, 2018. "Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life," NBER Working Papers 25055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Megumi Kasajima & Hideki Hashimoto & Sze‐Chuan Suen & Brian Chen & Hawre Jalal & Karen Eggleston & Jay Bhattacharya, 2021. "Future projection of the health and functional status of older people in Japan: A multistate transition microsimulation model with repeated cross‐sectional data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 30-51, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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