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Social Implications of Fiscal Policy Responses During Crises

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  • Carlos A. Vegh
  • Guillermo Vuletin

Abstract

This paper studies the social implications of fiscal policy responses to crises in Latin America over the last 40 years and in the Eurozone during the aftermath of the global financial crisis. We focus on the behavior of four social indicators: the poverty rate, income inequality, unemployment rate, and domestic conflict. We find a causal link from counteryclical (procyclical) fiscal policy responses to reductions (increases) in all four social indicators. These results call into question recent claims on "expansionary fiscal austerity."

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "Social Implications of Fiscal Policy Responses During Crises," NBER Working Papers 19828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19828
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2008. "Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies: the Role of Institutions and financial Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 481, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    4. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2016. "Tax multipliers: Pitfalls in measurement and identification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 30-48.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    7. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2015. "How Is Tax Policy Conducted over the Business Cycle?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 327-370, August.
    10. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "Fiscal multipliers in recessions and expansions : does it matter whether government spending is increasing or decreasing ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6993, The World Bank.
    11. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Clark Granger & Yurany Hernández & Jorge Ramos & Jorge Toro & Héctor Zárate, 2018. "La postura fiscal en Colombia a partir de los ajustes a las tarifas impositivas," Borradores de Economia 1038, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see, fast to act," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Anna Kalbhenn & Livio Stracca, 2020. "Mad about Austerity? The Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Public Opinion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 531-548, March.
    4. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2020. "Academic Scholarship in Light of the 2008 Financial Crisis: Textual Analysis of NBER Working Papers," MPRA Paper 98785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Prein, Timm, 2019. "Persistent Unemployment, Sovereign Debt Crises, and the Impact of Haircuts," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203654, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association, revised 2019.
    6. Chatzouz, Moustafa, 2014. "Government Debt and Wealth Inequality: Theory and Insights from Altruism," MPRA Paper 77007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Estache, Antonio & Foucart, Renaud, 2021. "On the political economy of industrial, labor and social reforms as complements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Stracca, Livio & Kalbhenn, Anna, 2015. "Does fiscal austerity affect public opinion?," Working Paper Series 1774, European Central Bank.
    9. Leonardo Villar & José Vicente Romero & César Pabón, 2015. "Política cambiaria, monetaria y fiscal: ¿ha aprendido Colombia a mitigar los efectos de las crisis?," Informes de Investigación 13616, Fedesarrollo.
    10. Stoian, Andreea & Alves, Rui Henrique, 2014. "High public debt in the euro area: still a fact," MPRA Paper 63679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tetiana Bogdan & Vladimir Gligorov & Peter Havlik & Michael Landesmann, 2017. "From Fiscal Austerity towards Growth-Enhancing Fiscal Policy in Ukraine," wiiw Research Reports 417, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    12. Pastor, Manuel & Wise, Carol, 2015. "Good-Bye financial crash, hello financial eclecticism: Latin American responses to the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 200-217.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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