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The Federal Reserve, Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High Frequency Empirical Investigation

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper I use weekly data from seven emerging nations – four in Latin America and three in Asia – to investigate the extent to which changes in Fed policy interest rates have been transmitted into domestic short term interest rates during the 2000s. The results suggest that there is indeed an interest rates “pass through” from the Fed to emerging markets. However, the extent of transmission of interest rate shocks is different – in terms of impact, steady state effect, and dynamics – in Latin America and Asia. The results also indicate that capital controls are not an effective tool for isolating emerging countries from global interest rate disturbances. Changes in the slope of the U.S. yield curve, including changes generated by a “twist” policy, affect domestic interest rates in emerging countries. I also provide a detailed case study for Chile.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18557.

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Date of creation: Nov 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18557

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  1. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0639, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Hali J. Edison & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," International Finance Discussion Papers 708, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Edwards, Sebastian & Rigobon, Roberto, 2009. "Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 256-267, July.
  4. Aizenman, Joshua & Chen, Menzie & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3897k2ss, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  5. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2006. "Can Structural Small Open Economy Models Account For The Influence Of Foreign Disturbances?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Capital Flow Contractions, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability," NBER Working Papers 12852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 4.
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jacques Miniane & John H. Rogers, 2007. "Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1003-1035, 08.
  10. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2003. "Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?," NBER Working Papers 10018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jose De Gregorio & Sebastian Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 2000. "Controls on Capital Inflows: Do they Work?," NBER Working Papers 7645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime," NBER Working Papers 8828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison & Martin Schindler, 2009. "Controlling Capital? Legal Restrictions and the Asset Composition of International Financial Flows," IMF Working Papers 09/208, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Dennis P. Quinn, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and financial globalization, 1890-1999: a synoptic view," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 189-204.
  15. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
  17. Sebastian Edwards & Mohsin S. Khan, 1985. "Interest Rate Determination in Developing Countries: A Conceptual Framework," NBER Working Papers 1531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Huanhuan Zheng, 2012. "Capital Controls in Brazil – Stemming a Tide with a Signal," Working Papers 201213, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  2. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
  3. Andreas Hoffmann & Axel Loeffer, 2014. "Low Interest Rate Policy and the Use of Reserve Requirements in Emerging Markets," ICER Working Papers 01-2014, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  4. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "What Lessons Can Asia Draw from Capital Controls in Brazil during 2008–2012?," ADBI Working Papers 423, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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