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Plant Closings, Labor Demand and the Value of the Firm

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Daniel S. Hamermesh

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Abstract

This study postulates an internal labor market in which workers accumulate firm-specific human capital that raises the value of the firm and insulates it to some extent from the vagaries of product demand that might result in its closing. Negative product-market shocks reduce wage growth and increase the probability of the firm closing. The model also predicts a U-shaped relation between the probability of the plant closing and the length of a worker's tenure, a proxy for firm-specific human investment. PSID data for 1977 through 1981 are used to produce weighted-probit estimates of the parameters of an equation describing the probability of displacement. The results support most of the predictions of the model, but similarly specified equations describing the probability of permanent layoff indicate that a theory of plant closings must differ from that of layoffs. The parameter estimates are used to infer an analogue to the firm's elasticity of demand for labor and to deduce the wage reduction necessary to avoid an increase in the probability of a plant closing when a negative demand shock occurs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1839.

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Date of creation: Feb 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1839

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  1. Daniel J. B. Mitchell, 1982. "Recent Union Contract Concessions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1982-1), pages 165-204. [Downloadable!]
  2. Raisian, John, 1983. "Contracts, Job Experience, and Cyclical Labor Market Adjustments," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(2), pages 152-70, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Brown, Charles, 1980. "Equalizing Differences in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 113-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Feldstein, Martin & Poterba, James, 1984. "Unemployment insurance and reservation wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 141-167. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jacob Mincer & Boyan Jovanovic, 1982. "Labor Mobility and Wages," NBER Working Papers 0357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence M, 1981. "Causes and Consequences of Layoffs," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 270-96, April.
  7. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1987. "The Costs of Worker Displacement," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 51-75, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Katharine G. Abraham & James L. Medoff, 1984. "Length of service and layoffs in union and nonunion work groups," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 38(1), pages 87-97, October.
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