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Does Labor Supply Matter During a Recession? Evidence from the Seasonal Cycle

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  • Casey B. Mulligan

Abstract

Every year has large demand and supply shifts associated with the seasons, regardless of the phase of the business cycle. Based on measures dating back to the 1940s, the seasonal shifts reject the hypotheses that demand shifts affect employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than in non-recession years, and that supply shifts matter significantly less (if at all) in the recession years. My results are consistent with the hypothesis that recessions are characterized by labor market distortions that are neither alleviated by additional labor demand nor exacerbated by additional labor supply.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16357.

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Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16357

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  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Patricia M. Anderson & Simon M. Burgess, 2000. "Empirical Matching Functions: Estimation and Interpretation Using State-Level Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 93-102, February.
  3. Mulligan Casey B, 2011. "Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other "Keynesian" Paradoxes," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, June.
  4. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," Discussion Papers, Columbia University, Department of Economics 0910-09, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  5. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December.
  7. S. Krane & W. Wascher, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment," BIS Working Papers 67, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 15369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, December.
  10. Gauti Eggertsson, 2010. "The paradox of toil," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 433, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Robert B. Barsky & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1988. "The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 2688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Casey B. Mulligan, 2009. "Means-Tested Mortgage Modification: Homes Saved or Income Destroyed?," NBER Working Papers 15281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin, 2013. "Testing for Keynesian Labor Demand," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 311 - 349.

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