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Decomposing the Great Trade Collapse: Products, Prices, and Quantities in the 2008-2009 Crisis

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  • Mona Haddad
  • Ann Harrison
  • Catherine Hausman

Abstract

We identify a new set of stylized facts on the 2008-2009 trade collapse that we hope can be used to shed light on the importance of demand and supply-side factors in explaining the fall in trade. In particular, we decompose the fall in international trade into product entry and exit, price changes, and quantity changes for imports by Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and the United States. When we aggregate across all products, most of the countries analyzed experienced a decline in new products, a rise in product exit, and falls in quantity for product lines that continued to be traded. The evidence suggests that the intensive rather than extensive margin mattered the most, consistent with studies of other countries and previous recessionary periods. On average, quantities declined and prices fell. However, these average effects mask enormous differences across different products. Price declines were driven primarily by commodities. Within manufacturing, while most quantity changes were negative, in most cases price changes moved in the opposite direction. Consequently, within manufacturing, there is some evidence consistent with the hypothesis that supply side frictions played a role. For the United States, price increases were most significant in sectors which are typically credit constrained.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16253.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16253

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  1. Bown, Chad P., 2009. "The global resort to antidumping, safeguards, and other trade remedies amidst the economic crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5051, The World Bank.
  2. Logan Lewis & Linda Tesar & Andrei Levchenko, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," 2010 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
  4. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2010. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working Paper Series 1245, European Central Bank.
  5. Berman, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "The vulnerability of sub-Saharan Africa to the financial crisis: the case of trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 7765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2011. "Trade and the Global Recession," NBER Working Papers 16666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Malouche, Mariem, 2009. "Trade and trade finance developments in 14 developing countries post September 2008 - a World Bank survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5138, The World Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Wagner, Joachim, 2012. "The Microstructure of the Great Export Collapse in German Manufacturing Industries, 2008/2009," IZA Discussion Papers 6393, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Gopinath, Gita & Itskhoki, Oleg & Neiman, Brent, 2012. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," CEPR Discussion Papers 9158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Okubo, Toshihiro & Kimura, Fukunari & Teshima, Nozomu, 2014. "Asian fragmentation in the Global Financial Crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 114-127.
  4. Davin Chor & Kalina Manova, 2010. "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ran Jing, 2011. "The Collapse Speed of China's Exports in the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3584, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2012. "The Great Trade Collapse," NBER Working Papers 18632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ichiro Tokutsu & Kazuo Ogawa & Mika Saito, 2012. "Japan out of the Lost Decade," IMF Working Papers 12/171, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Gopinath, Gita & Itskhoki, Oleg & Neiman, Brent, 2012. "Trade Prices and the Global Trade Collapse of 2008–09," Scholarly Articles 11988099, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. JaeBin Ahn, 2011. "A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance," IMF Working Papers 11/262, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Nakhoda, Aadil, 2012. "The influence of financial leverage of firms on their international trading activities," MPRA Paper 35765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Mitsuyo ANDO & Fukunari KIMURA, 2013. "Evolution of Machinery Production Networks: Linkage of North America with East Asia," Working Papers, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) DP-2013-32, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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