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What Determines European Real Exchange Rates?

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  • Martin Berka
  • Michael B. Devereux

Abstract

We study a newly constructed panel data set of relative prices of a large number of consumer goods among 31 European countries. We find that there is a substantial and non-diminishing deviation from PPP at all levels of aggregation, even among eurozone members. However, real exchange rates are very closely tied to relative GDP per capita within Europe, both across countries and over time. This relationship is highly robust at all levels of aggregation. We construct a simple two-sector endowment economy model of real exchange rate determination. Simulating the model using the historical relative GDP per capita for each country, we find that for most (but not all) countries there is a very close fit between the actual and simulated real exchange rate.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15753.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Publication status: published as Trends in European Real Exchange Rates. (with Martin Berka) Economic Policy, 28, 193-242
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15753

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Cited by:
  1. Zvi Eckstein & Amit Friedman, 2011. "The equilibrium real exchange rate for Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 201-213 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Karine Gente & Carine Nourry, 2011. "Integration, real exchange rate and growth," Working Papers halshs-00643043, HAL.
  3. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux, 2013. "Trends in European real exchange rates," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 193-242, 04.
  4. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 421-428, June.
  5. Chaban, Maxym, 2011. "Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 793-806.
  6. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 179-85, May.
  7. Claudia M. Buch, 2012. "From the Stability Pact to ESM - What next?," IAW Discussion Papers 85, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).

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