Searching for Irving Fisher
AbstractThere is a long-standing debate as to whether the Fisher effect operated during the classical gold standard period. We break new ground on this question by developing a market-based measure of general inflation expectations during the gold standard. Since the gold-silver price ratio was widely used to track inflation during the gold standard period, we are able to derive a measure of inflation expectations using the interest-rate differential between Austrian silver and gold perpetuity bonds with identical terms. Our empirical evidence suggests that inflation expectations exhibited significant persistence at the weekly, monthly, and annual frequencies. We also find that market participants updated long-run inflation expectations following short-run changes in the forward silver price of gold. The evidence suggests the operation of a long-run Fisher effect during the classical gold standard period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15670.
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Note: DAE ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992.
"Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999.
"Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility,"
NBER Working Papers
7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
- Richard H. Steckel & Richard A. Jensen, 1985. "Determinants of Slave and Crew Mortality in the Atlantic Slave Trade," NBER Working Papers 1540, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burdekin, R.C.K. & Siklos, P.L., 1997.
"Exchange Rate Regimes and Shfts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?,"
Working Papers, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics
97-2, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Burdekin, Richard C K & Siklos, Pierre L, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Shifts in Inflation Persistence: Does Nothing Else Matter?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 235-47, May.
- Perez, Stephen J & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. " Inflationary Expectations and the Fisher Effect prior to World War I," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 947-65, December.
- Harley, C. Knick, 1977. "The interest rate and prices in Britain, 1873-1913: A study of the Gibson Paradox," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 69-89, January.
- Barsky, Robert B., 1987.
"The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
- Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bordo Michael D. & Kydland Finn E., 1995. "The Gold Standard As a Rule: An Essay in Exploration," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 423-464, October.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher Meissner & Angela Redish, 2003. "How "Original Sin" was Overcome: The Evolution of External Debt Denominated in Domestic Currencies in the United States and the British Dominions," NBER Working Papers 9841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taufiq Choudhry, 1996. "The Fisher effect and the gold standard: evidence from the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(8), pages 553-555.
- Daniel K. Benjamin & Levis A. Kochin, 1984. "War, Prices, and Interest Rates: A Martial Solution to Gibson's Paradox," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 587-612 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J & Siegel, Jeremy J, 1977. "The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 891-907, October.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
- Alfred A. Haug, 2013.
"On Real Interest Rate Persistence: The Role of Breaks,"
Working Papers, University of Otago, Department of Economics
1303, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2013.
- Alfred A. Haug, 2014. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(10), pages 1058-1066, April.
- Alfred Haug, 2012. "On real interest rate persistence: the role of breaks," Working Papers, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics 65, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
- Flandreau, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2012. "Was the emergence of the international gold standard expected? Evidence from Indian Government securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 649-669.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.