A Tale of Two Effects
AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices using nearly two centuries of data from ten industrial countries. Both a positive relationship between interest rates and price levels (that is, a positive Gibson effect) and a negative relationship between interest rates and subsequent price changes (that is, a negative Fama-Fisher effect) prevailed until World War I. We propose a simple explanation wherein this doubly paradoxical juxtaposition of effects arises when money is supplied inelastically and prices are flexible. This double paradox disappeared after World War II when economies became mostly characterized by elastic money and sticky prices. During that period, a positive Fama-Fisher effect emerged while the Gibson effect largely dissipated. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 90 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997.
"Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Klovland Jan Tore, 1993. "Zooming in on Sauerbeck: Monthly Wholesale Prices in Britain 1845-1890," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-228, April.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990.
"Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard,"
NBER Working Papers
1680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky, 1986.
"The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
- Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
- Hafer, R W & Jansen, Dennis W, 1991.
"The Demand for Money in the United States: Evidence from Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 155-68, May.
- Hafer, R.W. & Jansen, D.W., 1990. "The Demand For Money In The United States: Evidence From Cointegration Tests," Papers 9010, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1984. "The Gibson Paradox: A Cross-Country Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(202), pages 109-27, May.
- Roll, Richard, 1972. "Interest Rates on Monetary Assets and Commodity Price Index Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 251-77, May.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1973.
"Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: A Study of the Gibson Paradox,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 385-449, Part II F.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1971. "Interest rates and prices in the long run: a study of the Gibson paradox," Working Papers 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Barsky, Robert B & De Long, J Bradford, 1991.
"Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 815-36, August.
- Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, . "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _121, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Francesca Di Iorio & Stefano Fachin, 2009. "A residual-based bootstrap test for panel cointegration," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3222-3232.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.