Inflationary Expectations and the Fisher Effect prior to World War I
AbstractWe use univariate and multivariate techniques to estimate the expected price level changes for the U.S. during the pre-World War I period. We also examine contemporaneous evidence from agricultural commodity futures markets to measure inflationary expectations. Using previously neglected data on consumer prices and a variety of techniques, we draw three main conclusions not traditionally found for this period: (1) price level changes were not white noise, (2) a significant portion of deflationary and inflationary episodes was indeed expected, and (3) expected inflation is positively and significantly correlated with nominal interest rates, thus providing support for a short-run Fisher effect.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879
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