IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/14955.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas: Evidence from Blackjack Tables

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce Ian Carlin
  • David T. Robinson

Abstract

Psychologists study regret primarily by measuring subjects' attitudes in laboratory experiments. This does not shed light on how expected regret affects economic actions in market settings. To address this, we use proprietary data from a blackjack table in Las Vegas to analyze how expected regret affects peoples''decisions during gambles. Even among a group of people who choose to participate in a risk-taking activity, we find strong evidence of an economically significant omission bias: players incur substantial losses by playing too conservatively. This behavior is prevalent even among large stakes gamblers, and becomes more severe following previous aggressive play, suggesting a rebound effect after aggressive play.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Ian Carlin & David T. Robinson, 2009. "Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas: Evidence from Blackjack Tables," NBER Working Papers 14955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14955
    Note: CF
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14955.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loewenstein, George, 1996. "Out of Control: Visceral Influences on Behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 272-292, March.
    2. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E, 1998. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 848-881, September.
    3. George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
    4. Larrick, Richard P. & Boles, Terry L., 1995. "Avoiding Regret in Decisions with Feedback: A Negotiation Example," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 87-97, July.
    5. Berk, Jonathan B & Hughson, Eric & Vandezande, Kirk, 1996. "The Price Is Right, but Are the Bids? An Investigation of Rational Decision Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 954-970, September.
    6. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
    7. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
    8. Zeelenberg, Marcel & Pieters, Rik, 2004. "Consequences of regret aversion in real life: The case of the Dutch postcode lottery," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 155-168, March.
    9. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1983. "A Rationale for Preference Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 428-432, June.
    10. Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
    11. Metrick, Andrew, 1995. "A Natural Experiment in "Jeopardy!"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 240-253, March.
    12. Rafael Tenorio & Timothy N. Cason, 2002. "To Spin or Not to Spin? Natural and Laboratory Experiments from "The Price is Right"," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(476), pages 170-195, January.
    13. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1987. "Some implications of a more general form of regret theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 270-287, April.
    14. Robert Gertner, 1993. "Game Shows and Economic Behavior: Risk-Taking on "Card Sharks"," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(2), pages 507-521.
    15. David E. Bell, 1982. "Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 961-981, October.
    16. Ritov, Ilana & Baron, Jonathan, 1995. "Outcome Knowledge, Regret, and Omission Bias," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 119-127, November.
    17. Simonson, Itamar, 1992. "The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 105-118, June.
    18. Zeelenberg, M. & Pieters, R., 2004. "Consequences of regret aversion in real life : The case of the Dutch postcode lottery," Other publications TiSEM d16cb90a-f96c-4fce-b4c7-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    19. Ritov, Ilana & Baron, Jonathan, 1992. "Status-Quo and Omission Biases," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-61, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prachi Deuskar & Deng Pan & Fei Wu & Hongfeng Zhou, 2021. "How does regret affect investor behaviour? Evidence from Chinese stock markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1851-1896, April.
    2. Ruty Keinan & Yoella Bereby-Meyer, 2012. ""Leaving it to chance"-Passive risk taking in everyday life," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(6), pages 705-715, November.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:6:p:705-715 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erik Hoelzl & Luise Hahn & Maria Pollai & Jan Masak, 2013. "The Effect of Feedback on Process and Outcome of Loan Negotiations: Consequences on Risk Aversion and the Willingness to Compromise," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 541-559, May.
    2. Bruce I. Carlin & David T. Robinson, 2009. "Fear and loathing in Las Vegas: Evidence from blackjack tables," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 4(5), pages 385-396, August.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:4:y:2009:i:5:p:385-396 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sugden, Robert & Wang, Mengjie & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2019. "Take it or leave it: Experimental evidence on the effect of time-limited offers on consumer behaviour," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1-23.
    5. Reb, Jochen, 2008. "Regret aversion and decision process quality: Effects of regret salience on decision process carefulness," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 169-182, March.
    6. van de Calseyde, Philippe P.F.M. & Zeelenberg, Marcel & Evers, Ellen R.K., 2018. "The impact of doubt on the experience of regret," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 97-110.
    7. Gee, C., 2007. "Risky Choice and Type-Uncertainty in "Deal or No Deal?"," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0758, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Krähmer, Daniel & Stone, Rebecca, 2005. "Regret in Dynamic Decision Problems," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 71, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    9. Yuval Rottenstreich & Alex Markle & Johannes Müller-Trede, 2023. "Risky Sure Things," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(8), pages 4707-4720, August.
    10. Inman, J.J. & Zeelenberg, M., 1998. ""Wow, I could've had a V8!" : The role of regret in consumer choice," Discussion Paper 1998-79, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Zeelenberg, M. & van Dijk, W.W. & Manstead, A.S.R., 1998. "Reconsidering the relation between regret and responsibility," Other publications TiSEM fa17bcac-aab0-4f37-8183-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Javad Nasiry & Ioana Popescu, 2012. "Advance Selling When Consumers Regret," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1160-1177, June.
    13. Terry Connolly & Jochen Reb, 2012. "Regret aversion in reason-based choice," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 35-51, July.
    14. Fujii, Yoichiro & Okura, Mahito & Osaki, Yusuke, 2021. "Is insurance normal or inferior? -A regret theoretical approach-," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Hoelzl, Erik & Loewenstein, George, 2005. "Wearing out your shoes to prevent someone else from stepping into them: Anticipated regret and social takeover in sequential decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 15-27, September.
    16. Zeelenberg, Marcel & van Dijk, Wilco W. & van der Pligt, Joop & Manstead, Antony S. R. & van Empelen, Pepijn & Reinderman, Dimitri, 1998. "Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Decisions: The Role of Counterfactual Thought in the Experience of Regret and Disappointment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 117-141, August.
    17. Reb, Jochen & Connolly, Terry, 2009. "Myopic regret avoidance: Feedback avoidance and learning in repeated decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 182-189, July.
    18. Einav Hart & Yaakov Kareev & Judith Avrahami, 2012. "Reversal of Risky Choice in a Good versus a Bad World," Discussion Paper Series dp619, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    19. Herweg, Fabian & Müller, Daniel, 2021. "A comparison of regret theory and salience theory for decisions under risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Zeelenberg, Marcel & van Dijk, Wilco W. & Manstead, Antony S. R., 1998. "Reconsidering the Relation between Regret and Responsibility," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 254-272, June.
    21. Zeelenberg, M. & van Dijk, W.W. & van der Pligt, J. & Manstead, A.S.R. & van Empelen, P. & Reinderman, D., 1998. "Emotional reactions to the outcomes of decision : The role of counterfactual thought in the experience of regret," Other publications TiSEM eafc28f9-18d6-4b76-b70f-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.