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Measuring the Returns to R&D: The Depreciation Problem

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Bronwyn H. Hall

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Abstract

Measuring the private returns to R&D requires knowledge of its private depreciation or obsolescence rate, which is inherently variable and responds to competitive pressure. Nevertheless, most of the previous literature has used a constant depreciation rate to construct R&D capital stocks and measure the returns to R&D, a rate usually equal to 15 per cent. In this paper I review the implications of this assumption for the measurement of returns using two different methodologies: one based on the production function and another that uses firm market value to infer returns. Under the assumption that firms choose their R&D investment optimally, that is, marginal expected benefit equals marginal cost, I show that both estimates of returns can be inverted to derive an implied depreciation rate for R&D capital. I then test these ideas on a large unbalanced panel of U.S. manufacturing firms for the years 1974 to 2003. The two methods do not agree, in that the production function approach suggests depreciation rates near zero (or even appreciation) whereas the market value approach implies depreciation rates ranging from 20 to 40 per cent, depending on the period. The concluding section discusses the possible reasons for this funding.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13473.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13473

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - General

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  1. Chan, Su Han & Martin, John D. & Kensinger, John W., 1990. "Corporate research and development expenditures and share value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 255-276, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Z, Griliches ; Jacques Mairesse, . "Production Functions : The Search for Identification," Working Papers 97-30, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ekeland, Ivar & Heckman, James J. & Nesheim, Lars, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models," IZA Discussion Papers 853, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Zvi Griliches & Bronwyn H. Hall & Ariel Pakes, 1991. "R&D, Patents, and Market Value Revisited: Is There Evidence of A SecondTechnological Opportunity Related Factor?," NBER Working Papers 2624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Zvi Griliches, 1958. "Research Costs and Social Returns: Hybrid Corn and Related Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 419. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Griliches, Zvi, 1981. "Market value, R&D, and patents," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 183-187. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Louis K. C. Chan, 2001. "The Stock Market Valuation of Research and Development Expenditures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2431-2456, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Zvi Griliches, 1980. "Returns to Research and Development Expenditures in the Private Sector," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Measurement, pages 419-462 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Iain Cockburn & Zvi Griliches, 1987. "Industry Effects and Appropriability Measures in the Stock Markets Valuation of R&D and Patents," NBER Working Papers 2465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. James N. Brown & Harvey S. Rosen, 1982. "On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bosworth, Derek & Rogers, Mark, 2001. "Market Value, R&D and Intellectual Property: An Empirical Analysis of Large Australian Firms," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(239), pages 323-37, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Potters, Lesley & Ortega-Argilés, Raquel & Vivarelli, Marco, 2008. "R&D and Productivity: Testing Sectoral Peculiarities Using Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 3338, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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