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R&D, productivity and market value

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Author Info
Bronwyn Hall (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of California, Berkeley)

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Abstract

Measuring the private returns to R&D requires knowledge of its private depreciation or obsolescence rate, which is inherently variable and responds to competitive pressure. Nevertheless, most of the previous literature has used a constant depreciation rate to construct R&D capital stocks and measure the returns to R&D, a rate usually equal to 15 per cent. In this paper I review the implications of this assumption for the measurement of returns using two different methodologies: one based on the production function and another that uses firm market value to infer returns. Under the assumption that firms choose their R&D investment optimally, that is, marginal expected benefit equals marginal cost, I show that both estimates of returns can be inverted to derive an implied depreciation rate for R&D capital. I then test these ideas on a large unbalanced panel of US manufacturing firms for the years 1974 to 2003. The two methods do not agree, in that the production function approach suggests depreciation rates near zero (or even appreciation) whereas the market value approach implies depreciation rates ranging from 20 to 50 per cent, depending on the period. The concluding section discusses the possible reasons why this is true.

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Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W06/23.

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Length: 47 pp.
Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:06/23

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  2. Don Fullerton & Andrew B. Lyon, 1989. "Tax Neutrality and Intangible Capital," NBER Working Papers 2430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2005. "Market Value and Patent Citations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 36(1), pages 16-38, Spring.
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  11. Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches & Jerry A. Hausman, 1986. "Patents and R&D: Is There A Lag?," NBER Working Papers 1454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Bronwyn Hall & Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Research and Development As An Investment," NBER Working Papers 2973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2000. "The Stock Market and Investment in the New Economy: Some Tangible Facts and Intangible Fictions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2000-1), pages 61-124. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Megna, Pamela & Klock, Mark, 1993. "The Impact on Intangible Capital on Tobin's q in the Semiconductor Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 265-69, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall, 1993. "The Value and Performance of U.S. Corporations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 1-50. [Downloadable!]
  25. Hayashi, Fumio & Inoue, Tohru, 1991. "The Relation between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 731-53, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Lev, Baruch & Sougiannis, Theodore, 1996. "The capitalization, amortization, and value-relevance of R&D," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 107-138, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Philippe Aghion & Nicholas Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2002. "Competition and innovation: an inverted U relationship," IFS Working Papers W02/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Keith W. Chauvin & Mark Hirschey, 1997. "Market structure and the value of growth," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 247-254.
  29. Hyun-Han Shin & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "Firm Value, Risk, and Growth Opportunities," NBER Working Papers 7808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Jensen, Michael C, 1993. " The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 831-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Zvi Griliches, 1984. "R & D, Patents, and Productivity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gril84-1.
  32. Harhoff, Dietmar & Scherer, Frederic M. & Vopel, Katrin, 2003. "Citations, family size, opposition and the value of patent rights," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1343-1363, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Sherry, Edward F. & Teece, David J., 2004. "Royalties, evolving patent rights, and the value of innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 179-191, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Zvi Griliches, 1979. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 92-116, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. Michael R. Darby & Qiao Liu & Lynne G. Zucker, 1999. "Stakes and Stars: The Effect of Intellectual Human Capital on the Level and Variability of High-Tech Firms' Market Values," NBER Working Papers 7201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Zvi Griliches & Bronwyn H. Hall & Ariel Pakes, 1991. "R&D, Patents, and Market Value Revisited: Is There Evidence of A SecondTechnological Opportunity Related Factor?," NBER Working Papers 2624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Investment Options and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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