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Understanding the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: A Theoretical Analysis

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  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Burhanettin Kuruscu

Abstract

In this paper we present an analytically tractable overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation, and study its implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution from 1970 to 2000. The key feature of the model, and the only source of heterogeneity, is that individuals differ in their ability to accumulate human capital. Therefore, wage inequality results only from differences in human capital accumulation. We examine the response of this model to skill-biased technical change (SBTC) theoretically. We show that in response to SBTC, the model generates behavior consistent with several features of the U.S. data including (i) a rise in overall wage inequality both in the short run and long run, (ii) an initial fall in the education premium followed by a strong recovery, leading to a higher premium in the long run, (iii) the fact that most of this fall and rise takes place among younger workers, (iv) a rise in within-group inequality, (v) stagnation in median wage growth (and a slowdown in aggregate labor productivity), and (vi) a rise in consumption inequality that is much smaller than the rise in wage inequality. These results suggest that the heterogeneity in the ability to accumulate human capital is an important feature for understanding the effects of SBTC, and interpreting the transformation that the U.S. economy has gone through since the 1970's.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13096.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Publication status: published as Journal of the European Economic Association Volume 10, Issue 3, pages 482–517, June 2012
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13096

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Cited by:
  1. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse 765, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  2. Anagnostopoulos, Alexis & Atesagaoglu, Orhan Erem & Carceles-Poveda, Eva, 2013. "Skill-biased technological change and homeownership," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 3012-3033.
  3. Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu, 2007. "A Quantitative Analysis of the Evolution of the U.S. Wage Distribution: 1970-2000," NBER Working Papers 13095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Andrea Canidio, 2012. "The Determinants of Long-Run Inequality," CEU Working Papers, Department of Economics, Central European University 2012_10, Department of Economics, Central European University, revised 20 Mar 2012.

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