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War in Iraq versus Containment

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  • Steven J. Davis
  • Kevin M. Murphy
  • Robert H. Topel

Abstract

We consider three questions related to the choice between war in Iraq and a continuation of the pre-war containment policy. First, in terms of military resources, casualties and expenditures for humanitarian assistance and reconstruction, is war more or less costly for the United States than containment? Second, compared to war and forcible regime change, would a continuation of the containment policy have saved Iraqi lives? Third, is war likely to bring about an improvement or deterioration in the economic well-being of Iraqis? We address these questions from an ex ante perspective as of early 2003. According to our analysis, pre-invasion views about the likely course of the Iraq intervention imply present value costs for the United States in the range of $100 to $870 billion. Our estimated present value cost for the containment policy is nearly $300 billion and ranges upward to $700 billion when we account for several risks stressed by national security analysts. Our analysis also indicates that war and forcible regime change will yield large improvements in the economic well-being of most Iraqis relative to their prospects under the containment policy, and that the Iraqi death toll would likely be greater under containment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12092.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Publication status: published as Guns and Butter: The Economic Causes and Consequences of Conflict, CESifo Seminar Series. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, 2009.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12092

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  1. Kosec, Katrina & Wallsten, Scott, 2005. "The Economic Costs of the War in Iraq," Working paper 42, Regulation2point0.
  2. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1387, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Kosec, Katrina & Wallsten, Scott, 2005. "The Economic Costs of the War in Iraq," Working paper 334, Regulation2point0.
  4. William D. Nordhaus, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of a War in Iraq," NBER Working Papers 9361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2005. "The effects of war risk on US financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1769-1789, July.
  2. Gardeazabal, Javier, 2010. "Methods for Measuring Aggregate Costs of Conflict," DFAEII Working Papers 2010-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  3. Kosec, Katrina & Wallsten, Scott, 2005. "The Economic Costs of the War in Iraq," Working paper 42, Regulation2point0.

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