Supply Shocks, Wage Stickiness, and Accommodation
AbstractThe main issue discussed in the supply shock literature that followed the oil and food price shocks of the seventies was whether to accommodate. The supply shock reduces the equilibrium level of output, and monetary policy can not affect that. But in the seventies supply shocks were also followed by recessions. The question is whether monetary policy can and should be used to prevent such recessions. The paper analyzes the conditions underwhich a suppiy shock will result in recession, and the potential for monetary policy to offset the fall in output. The basic result is that a pure supply shock need not resultin a recession if the money stock is held constant.Aggregate demand effects associated with the supply shock--including the effectsof monetary policy attempts to fight the inflation caused by the supply shock--may cause a recession, as also may real wage resistance by workers. The choice of policy response to the supply shock then turns on the same basic issues as counter-cyclical policy in general, particularly the relative costs of inflation and unemployment.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1119.
Date of creation: May 1983
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- Nancy Peregrim Marion & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1982. "Structural Differences and Macroeconomic Adjustment to Oil Price Increases in a Three-Country Model," NBER Working Papers 0839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Phelps, Edmund S, 1978. "Commodity-Supply Shock and Full-Employment Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 206-21, May.
- Stanley Fischer, 1980. "On Activist Monetary Policy with Rational Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 211-247 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1983. "Supply Shocks, Sticky Prices, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(4), pages 489-98, November.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1980. "Energy Price Increases and Macroeconomic Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-20.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1975. "Alternative Responses of Policy to External Supply Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 183-206.
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