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The Short-Run Relation Between Inflation and Growth in Latin America

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Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and growth in five Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru).The analysis focuses on the effects of expected and unexpected monetary growth on output, and explicitly incorporates the relationship between fiscal deficits and money creation in these countries. Open economy considerations are explicitly introduced into the analysis.Contrary to previous findings (Hanson, 1980), the results obtained in this paper indicate that these countries exhibit very different behavior with respect to the relationship between unexpected money and growth: While for Chile and Brazil no evidence was found of a positive relation between monetary policy (expected or unexpected) and growth, for Colombia, Mexico and Peru a positive relationship was found between unexpected monetary policy and growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1065.

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Date of creation: Feb 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1065

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  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  2. Mario I. Blejer & Roque B. Fernandez, 1980. "The Effects of Unanticipated Money Growth on Prices and on Output and Its Composition in a Fixed-Exchange-Rate Open Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 82-95, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  4. Michael R. Darby, 1980. "Unanticipated or Actual Changes in Aggregate Demand Variables: A Cross-Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Baer, Werner & Beckerman, Paul, 1974. "Indexing in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 2(10-12), pages 35-47. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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