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Explaining Movements in Completed Fertility Across Cohorts

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Lawrence W. Kenny

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Abstract

A life cycle model of fertility based on the quantity-quality model of fertility successfully explains changes in completed fertility in a period in which completed fertility first fell and then rose. This model furthermore accurately predicts the timing and level of the subsequent peak in completed fertility. Regressions based on Easterlin's relative economic status theory of fertility are less successful in predicting fertility over a fifteen year period than regressions based on the quantity-quality model. Upon investigation, much of the increase in completed fertility associated with the baby boom appears to be primarily attributable to sporadic wage growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0270.

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Date of creation: Aug 1978
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0270

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  1. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
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  3. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gary S. Becker & James S. Duesenberry & Bernard Okun, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 225-256 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Morris Silver, 1965. "Births, Marriages, and Business Cycles in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 237. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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