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Possible Paths for GDP Per Capita – Simulation with a Demographic Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Éva Berde

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

  • Izabella Kuncz

    (Corvinus University of Budapest)

Abstract

To begin our paper, we point out the importance of demographic growth models by highlighting the conceptual framework of overlapping generations. We define the formulas in our own model based on Lee – Mason (2010), modifying the original framework in several respects. We present the exogenous fertility and survival rates in different demographic scenarios, and then we derive the simulation paths for GDP per capita from these. A word of caution regarding our results: the simple structure of our model disregards several factors potentially influencing growth. When concentrating solely on the impact of changes in fertility and mortality rates, our simulation results suggest that a drop in the total fertility rate, even to slightly below the replacement level, and even in the context of a relatively high survival rate, may increase GDP per capita. However, in the case of an extremely low total fertility rate and a high survival rate, an economic downturn can be expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Éva Berde & Izabella Kuncz, 2017. "Possible Paths for GDP Per Capita – Simulation with a Demographic Growth Model," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 36-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:4:p:36-57
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overlapping generations model; total fertility rate; survival rate; simulation path; GDP per capita;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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