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Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study

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Author Info
Adam Głogowski (National Bank of Poland, Financial System Department)
Abstract

The paper investigates the links between business cycle variables and loan losses of Polish commercial banks. A panel approach was chosen in order to make maximum use of available supervisory data, and to capture the impact of bank profile on loan losses. Loan losses are proxied by the flow of loan loss provisions. We find a significant influence of real GDP growth, changes in real interest rate, and labour market variables such as changes in unemployment rate. Due to the high share of FX loans to households, the influence of exchange rate is also examined, but the results are inconclusive. The differences in loan losses between banks can be attributed to differences in business profile, described by classification of banks into “strategic groups”, as well as the structure of loan portfolio. The paper concludes with an example of a stress testing exercise conducted using scenarios generated through the National Bank of Poland’s macroeconomic model.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 53.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:53

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Related research
Keywords: credit risk; banks; Poland; panel data; stress tests;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. Dawid, Żochowski & Sławomir, Zajączkowski, 2006. "The Distribution and Dispersion of Debt Burden Ratios Among Households in Poland and its Implications for Financial Stability," MPRA Paper 692, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert T. Clair, 1992. "Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olga Andreeva, 2004. "Aggregate bankruptcy probabilities and their role in explaining banks’ loan losses," Working Paper 2004/02, Norges Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pesola , Jarmo, 2005. "Banking fragility and distress: An econometric study of macroeconomic determinants," Research Discussion Papers 13/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marianne Gizycki, 2001. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on Banks’ Risk and Profitability," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-06, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking, Contagion and Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hałaj, Grzegorz & Żochowski, Dawid, 2006. "Strategic groups in Polish banking sector and financial stability," MPRA Paper 326, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 75-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Banco de España Working Papers 0531, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  13. Glenn Hoggarth & Andrew Logan & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Macro stress tests of UK banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 392-408 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Porter, Michael E, 1979. "The Structure within Industries and Companies' Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 214-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bhargava, A & Franzini, L & Narendranathan, W, 1982. "Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 533-49, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Williams, Jonathan, 2004. "Determining management behaviour in European banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2427-2460, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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