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Loan growth and loan quality: some preliminary evidence from Texas banks

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  • Robert T. Clair
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    Abstract

    Following the failures of depository institutions in the 1980s, many analysts concluded that the rapid growth of lending activity and the deterioration of loan quality were related. Robert T. Clair tests this relationship after separating loan growth by its source: increased lending to new or existing customers, bank mergers, and acquisitions of failed banks. The preliminary evidence suggests that additional lending to new or existing customers beyond what might be normal at a given stage of the business cycle lowers loan quality after a three-year lag. This relationship, based on evidence from Texas banks, was especially strong at banks with below-average capitalization. ; Not all loan growth, however, will lead to lower loan quality. Loan growth during an economic expansion is to be expected as loan demand increases. Furthermore, well-capitalized banks were able to grow very rapidly and maintain loan quality. ; One method of increasing lending while maintaining loan quality was through the purchase of failed banks with the assistance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Of course, these purchases increased lending only for the acquiring banks and did not reflect an increase in total lending for the banking industry. Furthermore, it is possible that FDIC resolution procedures have discouraged the acquisition of weak but still solvent banks by stronger banks and are thereby slowing the rate of needed consolidation in the banking industry.

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    File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/er/1992/er9203b.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its journal Economic and Financial Policy Review.

    Volume (Year): (1992)
    Issue (Month): Q III ()
    Pages: 9-22

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1992:i:qiii:p:9-22

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    Keywords: Bank failures ; Bank loans;

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    Cited by:
    1. Santiago Fernández de Lis & Jorge Martínez Pagés & Jesús Saurina, 2000. "Credit Growth, Problem Loans and Credit Risk Provisioning in Spain," Banco de España Working Papers 0018, Banco de España.
    2. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    3. Jesús Saurina-Salas, 1998. "Determinantes de la morosidad de las cajas de ahorro españolas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(3), pages 393-426, September.
    4. Jaap Bikker & Paul Metzemakers, 2004. "Is bank capital procyclical? A cross-country analysis," DNB Working Papers 009, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran & Stuart, Rebecca, 2011. "Exploring the Steady-State Relationship between Credit and GDP for a Small Open Economy - The Case of Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Foos, Daniel & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2010. "Loan growth and riskiness of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2929-2940, December.
    7. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    8. Jesus, Saurina & Gabriel, Jimenez, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," MPRA Paper 718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Banco de España Working Papers 0722, Banco de España.
    10. Christophe Godlewski, 2004. "Excess Credit Risk and Bank’s Default Risk An Application of Default Prediction’s Models to Banks from Emerging Market Economies," Finance 0409028, EconWPA.
    11. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    12. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    13. Adam Głogowski, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of Polish banks’ loan losses – results of a panel data study," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 53, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
    14. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2005. "Credit cycles, credit risk, and prudential regulation," Banco de España Working Papers 0531, Banco de España.
    15. Hess, Kurt & Feng, Gary, 2007. "Is there market discipline for New Zealand non-bank financial institutions?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 326-340, October.

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