Can Excess Liquidity Signal an Asset Price Boom?
AbstractThis paper analyses the relationship between the prevailing liquidity conditions (such as measures of money, credit and interest rates) and developments in asset prices from a monetary analysis perspective. After having identified periods of sustained excess liquidity, we analyse under which conditions they are more likely to be followed by an asset price boom. The results from a descriptive analysis of the developments in a number of macroeconomic and financial variables suggest that periods of sustained excess liquidity that are accompanied by strong economic activity, low interest rates, high real credit growth and low inflation have a higher likelihood of being followed by an asset price boom. This conclusion is also confirmed by a logit analysis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 117.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2007
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
excess liquidity; asset prices; logit model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2007-08-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-08-18 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Adalid, Ramón & Detken, Carsten, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0732, European Central Bank.
- Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0364, European Central Bank.
- Gouteron, S. & Szpiro, D., 2005. "Excès de liquidité monétaire et prix des actifs," Working papers 131, Banque de France.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
- Goknur Umutlu & Yilmaz Yildız, 2011. "The Effect of Global Liquidity on Macroeconomic Parameters," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 167-181, September.
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