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Risk factors in international financial crises: early lessons from the 2008-2009 turmoil

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  • Sebastian Dullien

Abstract

This paper analyses the global transmission of the recent economic and financial crisis as a function of macroeconomic factors such as per capita gross domestic product, current-account positions prior to the crisis, exchange-rate regimes, inflation prior to the crisis and financial openness. It finds that large current-account imbalances (both surpluses and deficits) were a risk factor in the current global economic turmoil. It also finds that countries that use currency boards have suffered much more from the crisis than countries with other exchange-rate regimes. Financial openness appears to have increased the risk of experiencing a deep recession, while higher inflation prior to the crisis seems to have mitigated its impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dullien, 2010. "Risk factors in international financial crises: early lessons from the 2008-2009 turmoil," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1001, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtf:wpaper:1001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    4. Sebastian Dullien, 2009. "Central Banking, Financial Institutions And Credit Creation In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 193, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rossitsa Rangelova, 2014. "Current-Account Imbalances and Economic Growth During the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis: an Empirical Analysis," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.

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