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Exponential Smoothing for Inventory Control: Means and Variances of Lead-Time Demand

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Author Info
Ralph D. Snyder ()
Anne B. Koehler
Rob J. Hyndman ()
J. Keith Ord

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Abstract

Exponential smoothing is often used to forecast lead-time demand for inventory control. In this paper, formulae are provided for calculating means and variances of lead-time demand for a wide variety of exponential smoothing methods. A feature of many of the formulae is that variances, as well as the means, depend on trends and seasonal effects. Thus, these formulae provide the opportunity to implement methods that ensure that safety stocks adjust to changes in trend or changes in season.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2002/wp3-02.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 3/02.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2002-3

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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; inventory control; lead-time demand; exponential smoothing; forecast variance.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith, 2001. "Forecasting models and prediction intervals for the multiplicative Holt-Winters method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 269-286. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hyndman, R.J. & Koehler, A.B. & Ord, J.K. & Snyder, R.D., 2001. "Prediction Intervals for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/2001, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D., 1990. "Structural time series models in inventory control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rob J. Hyndman & Muhammad Akram & Blyth Archibald, 2003. "Invertibility Conditions for Exponential Smoothing Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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