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Exponential Smoothing for Inventory Control: Means and Variances of Lead-Time Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Ralph D. Snyder
  • Anne B. Koehler
  • Rob J. Hyndman
  • J. Keith Ord

Abstract

Exponential smoothing is often used to forecast lead-time demand for inventory control. In this paper, formulae are provided for calculating means and variances of lead-time demand for a wide variety of exponential smoothing methods. A feature of many of the formulae is that variances, as well as the means, depend on trends and seasonal effects. Thus, these formulae provide the opportunity to implement methods that ensure that safety stocks adjust to changes in trend or changes in season.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph D. Snyder & Anne B. Koehler & Rob J. Hyndman & J. Keith Ord, 2002. "Exponential Smoothing for Inventory Control: Means and Variances of Lead-Time Demand," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2002-3
    as

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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2002/wp3-02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith, 2001. "Forecasting models and prediction intervals for the multiplicative Holt-Winters method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 269-286.
    2. Peter R. Winters, 1960. "Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 6(3), pages 324-342, April.
    3. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    4. Hyndman, R.J. & Koehler, A.B. & Ord, J.K. & Snyder, R.D., 2001. "Prediction Intervals for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D., 1990. "Structural time series models in inventory control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198, July.
    6. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    7. Snyder, R.D. & Koehler, A.B. & Ord, J.K., 1998. "Lead Time demand for Simple Exponential Smoothing," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Ord, J.K. & Koehler, A. & Snyder, R.D., 1995. "Estimation and Prediction for a Class of Dynamic Nonlinear Statistical Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

    Forecasting; inventory control; lead-time demand; exponential smoothing; forecast variance.;
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