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Conflict Prevention by Bayesian Persuasion

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  • Raphaela Hennigs

Abstract

Drawing upon the Bayesian persuasion literature, I show that a mediator can provide conflicting parties strategically with information to decrease the ex-ante war probability. In a conflict between two parties with private information about military strength, the mediator generates information about each conflicting party’s strength and commits to sharing the obtained information with the respective opponent. The conflicting parties can be convinced not to ï¬ ght each other. The conflicting parties beneï¬ t from mediation, as the ex-ante war probability is reduced. The beneï¬ t is taken up by weak conflicting parties. This beneï¬ t is larger when war is costlier and when the war probability absent mediation is higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaela Hennigs, 2019. "Conflict Prevention by Bayesian Persuasion," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2019-16_1, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2019-16_1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mediation; conflict; information design; Bayesian persuasion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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