Asian Demographic Transition: An Instrumental-Variables Panel Approach
AbstractWe examine patterns in fertility during the demographic transition using a panel data set across 25 Asian countries for 1975-2003. The adult female literacy rate is used as an instrumental variable for the endogenous female labor force participation rate, which has been unsolved in the population literature. The preliminary panel data analysis suggests that relative cohort size is significant in explaining the decline in fertility before controlling for simultaneity bias. This result, however, may be spurious. After considering the instrumental variables estimation in the panel data structure, the age structure variable no longer plays a dominant role in explaining declining fertility rates in many Asian countries. Systematic differences were found between East and South Asia. A policy implication in South Asia is that development may reduce fertility directly through increasing income rather than indirectly through a change in female labor force participation or urbanization. In East Asia, the indirect effects dominate.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 28-07.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2009-08-08 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2009-08-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-SEA-2009-08-08 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John C. Caldwell, 1996. "A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 385-398.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
- Diane Macunovich, 1999.
"Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition,"
Center for Policy Research Working Papers
8, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 2000. "Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(2), pages 235-261.
- Yongil Jeon & Michael P. Shields, 2005. "The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, 08.
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