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The role of demographic variables in explaining financial returns in Italy

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  • Marianna Brunetti

    ()

  • Costanza Torricelli

    ()

Abstract

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the relationship between asset returns and age-structure by investigating the case of Italy, which is experiencing one of the most pronounced ageing in the world. To this end, time-series regressions are run, in which real returns on different financial assets (stocks, long- and short-term government bonds) are used as dependent variables. The dataset contains annual observations spanning over the period 1958-2004. First, as in Poterba (2001, 2004) only demographic variables are used as explanatory ones. Then, following Davis and Li (2003) the regression specifications are completed with a set of financial variables which have finance-theoretical underpinnings. Results point towards a major effect of demographic dynamics on financial asset returns which appear significantly higher in magnitude than what Poterba (2001, 2004) and Davis and Li (2003) report for US, especially in the stock market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica in its series Heterogeneity and monetary policy with number 0701.

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Length: pages 35
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mod:modena:0701

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Web page: http://www.economia.unimore.it
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Keywords: population ageing; financial returns; stocks; bonds;

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  1. Baldini Massimo & Onofri Paolo, 2001. "Transizione demografica e mercati finanziari," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 185-208.
  2. Andrew B. Abel, 2002. "The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of Social Security," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
  4. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
  5. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2009. "Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(18), pages 2309-2322.
  6. Peter S. Yoo, 1994. "Age distributions and returns of financial assets," Working Papers 1994-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate the Predicted Meltdown in Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," NBER Working Papers 8131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  9. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2007. "The Effect of Population Ageing on Household Portfolio Choices in Italy," Department of Economics 0545, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  10. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2000. "Household Portfolios in Italy," CSEF Working Papers 43, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  11. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  12. Ang, Andrew & Maddaloni, Angela, 2003. "Do demographic changes affect risk premiums? Evidence from international data," Working Paper Series 0208, European Central Bank.
  13. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 501-37, October.
  14. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
  15. Bellante, Don & Green, Carole A., 2004. "Relative risk aversion among the elderly," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 269-281.
  16. Goyal, Amit, 2004. "Demographics, Stock Market Flows, and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 115-142, March.
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