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The Effects of Legislated Tax Changes in Germany

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Author Info

  • Bernd Hayo

    ()
    (University of Marburg)

  • Matthias Uhl

    (University of Marburg)

Abstract

This paper studies the short-run macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Germany using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. Identification of the tax shock follows the narrative approach recently proposed by Romer and Romer (2010). Results indicate a moderate, but statistically significant, reduction in output as well as a strong offsetting monetary policy reaction following announcement of the tax policy. In response to a 1 percent increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio, the peak output reduction is about 0.7 percent. Distinguishing between anticipation and implementation effects suggests that tax changes affect GDP prior to actual implementation, whereas effects around the implementation period are insignificant, which is arguably due to the offsetting, forward-looking monetary policy reaction.

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File URL: http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb02/makro/forschung/magkspapers/42-2011_hayo.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung) in its series MAGKS Papers on Economics with number 201142.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in
Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:201142

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Related research

Keywords: Legislated Tax Change; Narrative Approach; Fiscal Policy; Tax Policy;

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References

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  1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
  2. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2009. "How large are the effects of tax changes?," NBER Working Papers 15303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Helge Berger, 1997. "The Bundesbank's path to independence: Evidence from the 1950s," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 93(3), pages 427-453, December.
  5. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Some Stylized Facts on Non-Systematic Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 3635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Giuseppe Fontana, 2009. "The transmission mechanism of fiscal policy: a critical assessment of current theories and empirical methodologies," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 587-604, July.
  8. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob, 1999. "A State within the State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank (1948-1973)," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(1), pages 17-39, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Bernd Hayo & Matthias Uhl, 2012. "Regional Effects of Federal Tax Shocks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201217, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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